Aes Cost of Capital

International Capital Structure and the Cost of Capital Agenda 1 2 3 4 5 International Capital Structure and the Cost of Capital Analyzing Cost of Capital among Countries Cross Border Listing of Stocks International Asset Pricing Model (IAPM) The Financial Structure of Subsidiaries Case Analysis – AES Corporation 6 International Capital Structure and the Cost of Capital Your Logo International Capital Structure and the Cost of Capital • Firms are becoming multinational in both scope AND in capital structure • Fully integrated financial markets = the same cost of capital both domestically and abroad o

If not, opportunity may exists to decrease cost of capital Cost of Capital • The minimum rate of return an investment must generate to cover its financing cost • Firms will undertake projects if the return is expected to exceed the cost of capital • Return = Cost of Capital : value unchanged • Return > Cost of Capital : firm’s value increases • Return < Cost of Capital : bad investment Weighted Average Cost of Capital (K) • When a firm has both debt and equity financing, weighted average cost of capital: K = (1-? )K+ ? (1- t)i K = (1-? )KL + ? i(1- t) • (1- ? = weight of cost of capital that is from equity • KL = cost of equity capital • ? = debt-to-total-market-value ratio (weight of total cost of capital that is from debt) • i = before-tax cost of debt capital (borrowing) • t = marginal corporate income tax rate o Interest payments are tax deductible K = (1-? )KL + ? i(1- t) • (1- ? ) = weight of cost of capital that is from equity • KL = cost of equity capital • ? = debt-to-total-market-value ratio (weight of total cost of capital that is from debt) • i = before-tax cost of debt capital (borrowing) • t = marginal corporate income tax rate o Interest payments are tax deductible

K = (1-? )KL + ? i(1- t) • (1- ? ) = weight of cost of capital that is from equity • KL = cost of equity capital • ? = debt-to-total-market-value ratio (weight of total cost of capital that is from debt) • i = before-tax cost of debt capital (borrowing) • t = marginal corporate income tax rate o Interest payments are tax deductible K = (1-? )KL + ? i(1- t) • (1- ? ) = weight of cost of capital that is from equity • KL = cost of equity capital • ? = debt-to-total-market-value ratio (weight of total cost of capital that is from debt) • i = before-tax cost of debt capital (borrowing) • t = marginal corporate income tax rate o

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Firm’s Investment Decision and the Cost of Capital • A firm that can reduce it’s cost of capital will be able to increase the profitable capital expenditures that they can invest in • This results in increasing shareholder wealth • We can do this by internationalizing our cost of capital Factors that affect the WACC Controllable Uncontrollable •1 Capital structure policy Proportion of debt and equity • Interest rates Increases cost of debt, may indirectly increase cost of equity • Investment Policy Degree of risk associated with new projects • Tax rates Increase in corporate tax rate decreases cost of debt decreases WACC Economic conditions Ie. Financial crisis of 2007/2008 Calculating the firm’s equity cost of capital Usually estimated using the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM): • Ri = Rf + ? (Rm – Rf) • Ri: Expected return of security I • Rf: Risk-free interest rate • ? : measures volatility of security i compared to the market portfolio • Rm: Market portfolio Cost of capital in segmented vs. integrated markets • Ri = Rf + ? (Rm – Rf) • In segmented markets, Rm is usually proxied by the S for the United States • In integrated markets, Rm can be proxied using the MSCI World index Cost of capital in segmented vs. ntegrated markets… continued • Same future cash flows are likely to be priced differently in different countries in segmented markets, why? o ? is measured against the domestic market portfolio a this differs from country to country • In fully integrated markets, same future cash flows will be priced the same as ? is now measured against the same world market portfolio Analyzing Cost of Capital among Countries Your Logo Does the Cost of Capital Differ among countries? ? Researches suggest that although international financial markets are not segmented anymore, they are still not fully integrated ?

The empirical evidence is not clear-cut If the international financial markets = less than fully integrated, then there can be systematic differences To illustrate that capital markets are less than fully integrated, McCauley and Zimmer (1994) provided a direct comparison of the cost of capital among the 4 major countries: Germany, Japan, UK and US Method: 1. estimate the cost of debt and equity capital 2. compute the cost of funds (weighted average cost of capital) – using capital structure in each country as the weight 3. compute the cost of capital in real terms after adjusting for the inflation rate

Effective Real After-Tax Cost of Debt Cost of Equity Debt -to-Equity Value Ratios Real After-Tax Cost of Funds Example – Novo Industri • Produces industrial enzymes and health care products • 1970s, management decided to finance planned future growth of company by entering international capital markets • Danish stock market was small and illiquid – company needed to internationalize • Novo management felt they were facing a higher cost of capital than competitors because of the segmented nature of the Danish stock market Example – Novo Industri Went international by: Increased transparency by presenting financial and technical statements in Danish and English • Cross-listed on the London Stock Exchange, • Listed ADRs (so that US investors can invest in US dollars rather than Danish) The Result: • Novo Industri’s stock price increased while other Danish stocks didn’t Implications of the example Firms operating in small, segmented domestic capital market can gain access to new capital and lower the cost of capital by listing their stocks on large, liquid capital markets like the New York and London Stock Exchanges. Cross border listing of stocks

Your Logo Cross-Border Listings of Stocks • Firms can potentially benefit from crossborder listings • Why? o Gain access to additional sources of capital while lowering cost of capital by increasing investor base o Increase in stock prices due to more demand and trading of the stock Cross-Border Listings of Stocks • Firms seem to prefer to list in neighbouring markets • Why? o Similarities in markets o A “home bias” Cross-Border Listings of Stocks • Generally, o Potentially expand investor base, which leads to a higher stock price and lower cost of capital lower transaction costs ? improvement in quality and quantity of firm specific information available to investors o Creates a secondary market for the company’s shares and facilitates raising new capital in foreign markets liquidity of a company’s stock o Enhance Cross-Border Listings of Stocks • Generally, o Enhances the visibility of the company and it’s products in foreign markets shares may be used as the “acquisition currency” for taking over foreign companies o Cross-listed o May improve the company’s corporate governance and transparency Cross-Border Listings of Stocks May improve the company’s corporate governance and transparency” • Once companies cross-lists its shares on foreign exchanges (NYSE, LSE), they are required to follow strong disclosure and listing requirements • On average, foreign companies listed on U. S. exchanges are valued ~17% higher Cross-Border Listings of Stocks • Disadvantages o Meeting disclosure and listing requirements can be costly (U. S. GAAP) in overseas markets o Volatility o Foreigners may take a controlling interest in the company and challenge domestic control International Asset Pricing Model IAPM Your Logo IAPM For understanding the effects of international cross-listings. • assuming cross-listed assets are internationally tradable assets and internationally nontradable assets. IAPM • CAPM: Ri=Rf+(RM-Rf)Bi Bi = Cov(Ri , RM)/Var(RM) =; Ri=Rf+[(RM-Rf)/Var(RM)]Cov(Ri,RM) AMM risk-aversion: Y*=[E(r)-rf]/(A? 2) » AM is a measure of aggregate risk aversion » M is aggregate market value of market portfolio =; Ri=Rf+ AMM Cov(Ri,RM) IAPM • Asset pricing mechanism under: • Complete integration – assets are trade internationally according to world systematic risk Complete segmentation – assets are trade respected to country systematic risk. Suppose two countries: Domestic Country and Foreign Country • IAPM Complete Segmentation •1 Domestic Country E(R): • Foreign Country E(R): Rg = Rf + AFF Cov (Rg , RF) Ri = Rf + ADD Cov (Ri , RD) Complete Integration Both Domestic and Foreign: Ri = Rf + AwW Cov (Ri , RW) In realty, assets are priced as partially integrated world financial markets IAPM Partially Integrated World Financial Markets • Internationally tradable assets are priced as if world financial markets were completely integrated • Non-tradable assets will be priced by world systematic risk (pricing spillover effect) and a country-specific systematic risk. o o

Spillover effect – externalities of economic activity or processes those who are not directly involved in it. Pollution, technology, even financial markets IAPM Nontradable assets of the domestic country: Ri=Rf+ AwW Cov*(Ri,RW)+ ADD [Cov(Ri , RD)- Cov*(Ri , RD)] Cov* (Ri , RW) Indirect world systematic risk Cov*(Ri,RW) is the indirect covariance between the ith nontradable asset and world market portfolio. Cov(Ri , RD)- Cov* (Ri , RD) Poor domestic systematic risk Cov*(Ri , RD) is indirect covariance between the future returns on the ith non-tradable asset and domestic country’s market portfolio that is induced by tradable assets.

IAPM implications: 1. International listing (trading) of assets in otherwise segmented markets directly integrates international capital market by making these asset tradable. 2. Firms with non-tradable assets get free ride from firms with tradable assets in sense that former indirectly benefit from international integration in terms of a lower cost of capital and higher asset prices. Effect of Foreign Equity Ownership Restrictions • Restrictions on maximum % ownership of local firms by foreigners • Mexico and India: limited to 49% • Two different classes of equity Chinese firms issue A shares and B shares • Ensuring domestic control of local firms Pricing-to-market (PTM) phenomenon • Constraint is effective in limiting desired foreign ownership eg. Korean firm’s restriction on foreigners is 20% Foreigners want to buy 30% • Foreign and domestic investors may face different market share prices Asset Pricing under Foreign Ownership Restrictions • A firm’s cost of capital depends on which investors, domestic or foreign, supply capital. • A firm can reduce its cost of capital by internationalizing its ownership structure. An Example of Foreign Ownership

Restrictions: Nestle • Nestle used to issue two different classes of common stock: – Bearer shares: foreigners – Registered shares: Swiss citizens – The bearer stock was more expensive. Nestle An Example of Foreign Ownership Restrictions: Nestle • On November 17, 1988, Nestle lifted restrictions imposed on foreigners, allowing them to hold registered shares as well as bearer shares. • A major transfer of wealth from foreign shareholders to Swiss shareholders. • The total value of Nestle increased substantially when it internationalized its ownership structure. • Nestle’s cost of capital therefore declined.

An Example of Foreign Ownership Restrictions: Nestle • The Nestle episode illustrates: – The importance of considering market imperfections – The peril of political risk – The benefits to the firm of internationalizing its ownership structure The Financial Structure of Subsidiaries Your Logo The Financial Structure of Subsidiaries Three different approaches to determining: 1. Conform to the parent company’s norm – where the parent company is fully responsible for the subsidiary’s financial obligations – not necessarily consistent with minimizing the parent’s overall cost of capital The Financial Structure of Subsidiaries

Three different approaches to determining: 2. Conform to the local norm of the country where the subsidiary operates – When the parent company is willing to let its subsidiary default, or the guarantee of obligations becomes difficult to enforce across national borders – Not the optimal one approach (immature nature of local financial markets) The Financial Structure of Subsidiaries Three different approaches to determining: 3. Vary judiciously to capitalize on opportunities to reduce financing costs and risks – Most reasonable and consistent with minimizing firm’s overall cost of capital – Take advantage of subsidized loans Taxes deduction of interest payment – Take advantage of various market imperfections (ex. political risks) CASE: Globalizing the Cost of Capital and Cost Budgeting at AES BRIEF BACKGROUND AES Originally Applied Energy Services • Founded in 1981 • Publically traded since 1991 • In 2003 – Leading independent supplier of electricity in the world – $33 Billion in asset (eg. Power plants, generation facility, other energy related businesses) stretched across 30 countries and 5 continents AES Early Success • • • • • 1983: 1st cogeneration facility is built in Houston, Texas 1988: Net income = $1. million 1991: AES goes public, net income = $42. 6 million 1991-1992: AES initiates international expansion 1996-1998: estimated 80%-85% capital investment is overseas • 2000: Revenue = $4. 958 billion Net Income = $778 million AES Typical Investment Structure AES AES stock price (market cap in 2000 reached $28 billion @ $70/share) AES AES stock price (market cap in 2002 fell 95% to $1. 6 billion @ $1/share AES What Happened? • It’s recipe for success (international exposure) became their recipe for disaster o Much of AES’ expansion took place in developing countries (there was more unmet demand vs. eveloped countries) • Main factors: o Devaluation of key South American currencies ? Argentine, Brazilian, Venezuelan currency crises o Adverse changes in energy regulatory requirements ? Government mandated energy rationing and competition o Decline in energy commodity prices AES AES ISSUES AES Simple Domestic Finance Framework • 12% discount rate was used for all contract generation projects o all dividend flows from projects were deemed equally risky ? fair assumption because businesses had similar capital structures o most risks could be hedged in the domestic market AES Same Model was Exported Overseas Worked well initially, when they first expanded to Northern Ireland o had many of the same characteristics as domestic projects • Model became increasingly strained in Brazil and Argentina o Hedging key exposures was not feasible (currency, regulatory.. ) AES SO… AES needed of a methodology for calculating Solution by AES valuation & cost of capital for capital budgeting at AES businesses in diverse locations around the world AES How did AES deal with it? • Rob Venerus, director of Corporate Analysis & Planning questioned whether the traditional CAPM would suffice • He did not advocate the use of a world CAPM o

AES owned businesses in poorly integrated capital markets Countries such as Tanzania and Georgia did not have any meaningful capital markets • He did not advocate the use a local CAPM either o AES How did AES deal with it? • So Rob Venerus developed a new model: Step 1 • Calculate the cost of equity using U. S. market data for each of AES’ projects o Average the unlevered equity betas from comparable U. S. companies o Relever the beta to reflect the capital structure of each of AES’ projects o Cost of equity = Rf + ? (Rm – Rf) AES How did AES deal with it? Step 2 • Calculate the cost of debt by adding the U.

S. risk free rate and a “default spread” o Cost of Debt = Rf + Default Spread o The “default spread” is based on the relationship between EBIT ratios for comparable companies and their cost of debt. AES AES How did AES deal with it? Step 3 • Add the sovereign spread to both the cost of equity and the cost of debt o this accounts for country-specific market risk, which is the difference between local government bond yields and corresponding U. S. Treasury yields. • These steps allow AES to calculate a WACC that reflects the systematic risk associated with each project in its local market.

AES AES How did AES deal with it? BUT… • Most of these local markets are developing markets where “access to capital was limited and information less than perfect” –> project-specific risk could not be diversified away • “Project-specific risk” must be accounted for! AES How did AES deal with it? Example of project-specific risk: • There are 2 hydro plants in Brazil that are identical in every aspect, except for the rivers that feed them. River #1 produces cash flows that vary +/50%, River #2 by +/- 10%. If they are financed by 100% equity, CAPM says they are worth the same. Rob Venerus thought this was unconvincing Seven types of “Project-specific risk”: 1. Operational/Technical 2. Counterparty credit/performance 3. Regulatory 7. Contractual Enforcement/Legal 4. Construction 5. Commodity 6. Currency Weights estimated from AES’ ability to anticipate and mitigate risk. Then given a grade between 0 (lowest exposure) and 3 (highest exposure), multiplied by their weights to yield a “business-specific risk score” AES Example Risk Score Calculation for Lal Pir Project (Pakistan) Business-specific risk score Used to calculate an adjustment to the initial cost of capital o 0 = no adjustment to WACC o 1 = +500 basis points (5%) o 2 = +1000 basis points (10%) o 3 = +1500 basis points (15%) • Overall (exhibit 8 from case): 1. calculate cost of equity and cost of debt using U. S. market data 2. add sovereign spread to each 3. calculate WACC 4. Add a business-specific risk adjustment to WACC SUGGESTION & RECOMMENDATION FOR AES CORPORATION Suggestion & Recommendation • AES Corporation’s current method of valuing risk is clearly inadequate. Not enough risks were being considered in their model, especially political and economic risks in developing countries that the company expanded to. Under this current model, country-specific risk is also difficult to measure. • This new model to value cost and risk should be implemented by AES. – It gives the company a more realistic projection of the risks that they may face with projects that they take on internationally. – Risks such as political, economic, country-specific and business-specific risks are now considered, where in the previous model they were neglected. THE END THANK YOU! Your Logo

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