No. 8 24 January 2012 GLOBAL FLOWS OF FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT EXCEEDING PRE-CRISIS LEVELS IN 2011, DESPITE TURMOIL IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMY HIGHLIGHTS Despite turmoil in the global economy, global foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows rose by 17 per cent in 2011, to US$1. 5 trillion, surpassing their pre-crisis average, based on UNCTAD estimates (figure 1). Figure 1. Global FDI flows, average 2005 2007 and 2007 to 2011 (Billions of US dollars) 1 969 1 744 1 480 1 472 1 180 1 290 1 509 740 0 pre-crisis average 2005-2007 2007 2008 2009 2010* 2011** Source: UNCTAD. * Revised. * Preliminary estimates. FDI inflows increased in all major economic groupings developed, developing and transition economies Developing and transition economies continued to account for half of global FDI in 2011 as their inflows reached a new record high, at an estimated US$755 billion, driven mainly by robust greenfield investments. In this group, the 2011 increase in FDI flows was no longer driven by South, East and South-East Asia (which saw an increase of 11 per cent), but rather by Latin America and the Caribbean (increase of 35 per cent) and by transition economies (31 per cent).
Africa, the region with the most least developed countries (LDCs), continued its decline in FDI inflows. FDI flows to developed countries also rose by 18 per cent, but the growth was largely due to cross-border merger and acquisitions (M&As), not the much-needed investment in productive assets through greenfield investment projects. Moreover, part of the M&A deals appear to be driven by corporate restructurings and a focus on core activities, especially in Europe. Looking forward, UNCTAD estimates that FDI flows will rise moderately in 2012, to around US$1. trillion. However, the downward quarterly trend in FDI projects over the final quarter of 2011 indicates that the risks and uncertainties for further FDI growth in 2012 remain in place. Global FDI flows rose in 2011, surpassing their pre-crisis level Global FDI inflows rose in 2011 by 17 per cent compared with 2010, despite the economic and financial crisis. The rise of FDI was widespread, including all three major groups of economies developed, developing and transition though the reasons for this increase differed across the globe (see below).
During 2011, many countries continued to implement policy changes aimed at further liberalizing and facilitating FDI entry and operations, but also introduced new measures regulating FDI (see UNCTAD's Investment Policy Monitor). UNCTAD’s global FDI quarterly index remained steady during 2011, underscoring the increased stability of flows witnessed during the year. Unlike foreign portfolio flows that have dramatically started to decline in the third quarter of 2011, FDI flows maintained their upward trends at least until this period (figure 2).
However, as preliminary data from cross-border M and greenfield investment projects suggest, FDI flows are expected to slow down in the fourth quarter of 2011. Figure 2. UNCTAD’s global FDI quarterly index compared with global foreign portfolio investment index , first quarter 2007 to last quarter 2011 (Base 100: quarterly average of 2005) 350 300 250 200 FDI 150 100 Foreign portfolio investment 50 0 Q1 - 50 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 - 100 Source: UNCTAD. Notes: The Global FDI Quarterly Index is based on quarterly data of FDI inflows for 67 countries.
The index has been calibrated so that the average of quarterly flows in 2005 is equivalent to 100. The similar index for global foreign portfolio investment is also based on quarterly data of portfolio investment inflows for the same 67 countries. This index has also been calibrated so that the average of quarterly flows in 2005 is equivalent to 100. Figures for the last quarter of 2011 are UNCTAD estimates. After three years of consecutive decline, FDI flows to developed countries grew robustly in 2011, reaching an estimate US$753 billion, 18 per cent up from 2010.
While FDI flows to Europe increased by 23 per cent, flows to the United States declined by 8 per cent (annex 1). These trends stand in stark contrast with the previous year, which saw a strong recovery in the United States and a continuing decline in Europe. Large-scale swings (from contraction in 2010 to expansion in 2011 or vice versa) were also observed for a number of major FDI recipients, including Denmark, Germany, Italy, Sweden and the United Kingdom. Ireland witnessed a large increase in FDI flows due entirely to equity and debt movements in the financial sector.
The rise in FDI in developed economies, mainly in European countries, was driven by crossborder M which in most cases appear to be driven by corporate restructuring, stabilization and rationalization of their operations, improving their capital usage and reducing the costs. Rising crossborder M in developed countries were partly due to the sale of non-core assets (e. g. Carrefour SA of France completed the spin-off of its Distribuidora Internacional de Alimentacion in Spain for US$3. billion), and targeted opportunistic deals due to the lower currency values and fire sales caused by lower prices of stock exchange markets. However, these general trends were not shared equally by all developed countries. For example, FDI in Greece and Germany was down, but up in Italy and France. The differences also manifested themselves among different FDI components (figure 3). In the majority of developed countries, the share of equity investment declined to less than 40 per cent; reinvested earnings accounted for almost half of FDI flows while other capital flows (primarily intra-company loans) increased.
In Europe alone, these debt flows swung from -(minus) US$25 billion in the first three quarters of 2010 to +US$36 billion in the same period in 2011, reflecting parent firms’ responses to the financial difficulties faced by their European affiliates. Figure 3. FDI inflows by components for 27 selected developed countries, average 2005–2007 and 2007–2011 (Percentage) 100 80 60 40 20 0 Average 2005-2007 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Q1-Q3 Equity flows Reinvested earnings Other capital flows Source: UNCTAD.
Notes: Selected developed countries included here: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Canada, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Hungary, Ireland, Israel, Japan, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, Sweden, Switzerland, the United Kingdom and the United States. Data for 2011 cover the first three quarters only. Developing and transition economies continued to absorb half of global FDI inflows in 2011, though with a somewhat smaller share than in the previous year.
FDI flows to developing Asia (excluding West Asia) the principal driver of the dynamic rise of developing and transition economies decelerated as the region suffered from the protracted crisis in Europe. On the other hand, Latin America and the transition economies saw a significant rise in inflows, though not enough to increase the share of all developing countries and transition economies in global flows. FDI flows to developing Asia (excluding West Asia) rose 11 per cent in 2011, despite a slowing down in the latter part of the year.
By subregion, East Asia, South-East Asia and South Asia received inflows of around US$209 billion, US$92 billion and US$43 billion, respectively. With a 16 per cent increase, South-East Asia continued to outperform East Asia in growth of FDI, while South Asia saw its inflows rise by one -third after a slide in 2010. The good performance of South-East Asia, which encompasses the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) as a whole, was driven by sharp increases of FDI inflows in a number of countries, including Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand.
FDI to China rose by 8 per cent to an estimated US$124 billion (US$116 billion in the non-financial sector) as a result of increasing flows to non-financial services, though FDI growth in the country slowed down in the last two months of 2011. FDI to Latin America and the Caribbean rose an estimated 35 per cent in 2011, to US$216 billion, despite a 31 per cent drop of the region's cross-border M&A sales. Most of the FDI growth occurred in Brazil, Colombia and offshore financial centres.
Foreign investors continue to find appeal in South America's endowment of natural resources, and they are increasingly attracted by the region's expanding consumer markets. Particularly attractive are Brazil's market size and its strategic position that brings other emerging markets such as Argentina, Chile, Colombia and Peru within easy reach. In addition, uncertainty in the global financial market served to boost flows to the region's offshore financial centres. The fall in FDI flows to Africa in 2009 and 2010 continued into 2011, though at a much slower rate.
The recovery in flows to South Africa did not offset the significant fall in FDI flows to North Africa: Egypt, Libya and Tunisia all witnessed sharp declines in FDI flows during the year. Central and East Africa experienced overall decreases in inward investment flows. West and Southern Africa, meanwhile, saw robust growth during the year. West Asia witnessed a 13 per cent decline in FDI flows to an estimated US$50 billion in 2011. Turkey stood out as an exception, with inward FDI registering a strong 45 per cent increase to US$13 billion, mainly due to a sharp rise in cross-border M&As sales.
This consolidated the country's position as the region's second largest FDI recipient behind Saudi Arabia, where FDI dropped by 44 per cent, to an estimated US$16 billion in 2011. Transition economies of South-East Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) experienced a strong recovery of 31 per cent in their FDI inflows in 2011. This was mainly due to a number of large cross-border deals in the Russian Federation targeting the energy industry. Investors were also motivated by the continued growth of local consumer markets and by a new round of privatizations.
Diverging trends in FDI modes accentuated in 2011 Cross-border M&As rose sharply in 2011 – especially mid-year – as deals announced in late 2010 came to fruition (figure 4). Rising M&A activity, especially in the form of megadeals, in developed countries and transition economies served as the major driver for this increase. The extractive industry was targeted by a number of important deals in both regions, while a sharp rise in pharmaceutical M&As took place in developed countries. M&As in developing economies fell slightly in value.
New deal activity began to falter in the middle part of the year as the number of announcements tumbled dramatically. Completed deals, which follow announcements roughly by half a year, also started to slow down by year’s end. Figure 4. Value of cross-border M&A sales and greenfield investment projects, First quarter 2007 to last quarter 2011 (Billions of dollars) 500 450 400 350 $ billion 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Q1 Q2 Q3 2007 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2008 M&A value Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2010 Q2 Q3 Q4 2011 2009 Greenfield value Source: UNCTAD.
Note: Data for the last quarter of 2011 are preliminary. Greenfield investment projects, in contrast, declined in value terms for the third straight year, despite a strong performance in the first quarter (figure 4). As these projects are registered on an announcement basis, their performance largely coincides with investor sentiment during a given period. Thus, their tumble in value terms beginning in the second quarter of the year was strongly linked with rising concerns about the direction of the global economy and events in Europe.
For the year as a whole, the value of greenfield investment projects dropped 3 per cent, compared with the previous year, with nearly three quarters of this decline occurring in developed countries. Greenfield investment projects in developing and transition economies rose slightly in 2011, accounting for about two thirds of the total value of greenfield investment projects (annex 1). FDI prospects for 2012: cautiously optimistic Based on the current prospects of underlying factors, such as GDP growth and cash holdings by transnational corporations (TNCs), UNCTAD estimates that FDI flows will rise moderately in 2012, to around US$1. trillion. However, the fragility of the world economy, with growth tempered by the debt crisis, the uncertainties surrounding the future of the euro and rising financial market turbulence, will have an impact on FDI flows in 2012. Both cross-border M&As and greenfield investments slipped in the last quarter of 2011. M&A announcements continue to be weak, suggesting that equity investment part of FDI flows will slow down in 2012, especially in developed countries. All these factors indicate that the risks and uncertainties for further FDI growth in 2012 remain in place.
Annex 1. FDI inflows, cross-border M&As, and greenfield investment by region and major economy, 2010–2011 (Billions of US dollars) a Host region / economy 2010 World 1 289. 7 Developed economies 635. 6 Europe 346. 8 European Union 314. 1 Austria 3. 8 Belgium 72. 0 Czech Republic 6. 8 Denmark - 1. 8 Finland 6. 9 France 33. 9 Germany 46. 1 Greece 0. 4 Ireland 26. 3 Italy 9. 2 Luxembourg 20. 3 Netherlands - 13. 5 Poland 9. 7 Portugal 1. 5 Spain 24. 5 Sweden - 1. 2 United Kingdom 51. 8 United States 228. 2 Japan - 1. 3 Developing economies 583. 9 54. Africa Egypt 6. 4 Nigeria 6. 1 South Africa 1. 2 Latin America and the Caribbean 160. 8 Argentina 7. 0 Brazil 48. 4 Chile 15. 1 Colombia 6. 8 Mexico 19. 6 Peru 7. 3 368. 4 Asia and Oceania West Asia 58. 2 Turkey 9. 1 South, East and South-East Asia 308. 7 China 114. 7 Hong Kong, China 68. 9 India 24. 6 Indonesia 13. 3 Malaysia 9. 1 Singapore 38. 6 Thailand 5. 8 South-East Europe and CIS 70. 2 Russian Federation 41. 2 Source : UNCTAD. a b FDI inflows b 2011 Growth rate (%) 1 508. 6 17. 0 753. 2 18. 5 425. 7 22. 8 414. 4 31. 9 17. 9 366. 3 41. 1 -42. 5. 0 -25. 9 17. 8 .. 0. 5 -92. 2 40. 0 18. 1 32. 3 -30. 0 - 0. 8 .. 53. 0 101. 3 33. 1 261. 0 27. 2 33. 8 - 5. 3 .. 14. 2 46. 7 4. 4 203. 3 25. 0 1. 9 22. 0 .. 77. 1 49. 0 210. 7 -7. 7 - 1. 3 .. 663. 7 13. 7 54. 4 -0. 7 0. 5 -92. 2 6. 8 12. 0 4. 5 269. 2 216. 4 6. 3 65. 5 17. 6 14. 4 17. 9 7. 9 392. 9 50. 4 13. 2 343. 7 124. 0 78. 4 34. 0 19. 7 11. 6 41. 0 7. 7 91. 7 50. 8 34. 6 -10. 0 35. 3 16. 4 113. 4 -8. 8 7. 4 6. 7 -13. 4 45. 1 11. 4 8. 1 13. 8 37. 9 48. 2 27. 6 6. 1 33. 1 30. 6 23. 4 Net cross-border M&As 2010 2011 Growth rate (%) 338. 8 507. 49. 7 251. 7 396. 3 57. 4 123. 4 191. 2 55. 0 113. 5 162. 8 43. 3 0. 4 6. 9 1 505. 6 9. 4 3. 9 - 58. 3 - 0. 5 0. 7 - 258. 4 1. 4 7. 7 431. 4 0. 3 1. 0 200. 6 3. 8 23. 6 524. 6 10. 9 12. 8 17. 2 - 1. 2 1. 2 - 201. 7 2. 1 2. 2 2. 5 6. 8 13. 4 98. 8 2. 1 9. 4 350. 9 4. 0 9. 4 134. 9 1. 0 10. 1 868. 3 2. 2 0. 9 - 58. 8 8. 7 17. 3 99. 1 1. 4 4. 4 203. 2 58. 3 34. 9 - 40. 1 80. 3 129. 7 61. 6 6. 7 5. 1 - 23. 9 82. 8 78. 8 - 4. 8 7. 6 6. 3 - 17. 1 0. 2 0. 6 198. 9 0. 3 0. 5 82. 2 3. 9 4. 4 10. 6 29. 5 3. 5 8. 9 1. 6 - 1. 6 8. 0 0. 7 45. 7 4. 6 2. 1 32. 1 6. 12. 0 5. 5 1. 7 3. 4 4. 6 0. 5 4. 3 2. 9 20. 3 - 0. 2 15. 1 0. 6 - 0. 9 1. 2 0. 5 52. 3 9. 5 7. 2 42. 7 9. 0 1. 0 12. 5 6. 5 4. 5 4. 5 0. 6 32. 2 29. 0 - 31. 3 - 107. 1 70. 5 - 65. 0 - 44. 5 - 84. 6 - 28. 8 14. 3 105. 8 251. 9 33. 2 50. 8 - 91. 5 125. 2 287. 8 31. 3 - 2. 1 24. 7 644. 5 895. 9 c Greenfield investments 2010 2011 Growth rate (%) 807. 0 780. 4 - 3. 3 263. 5 229. 9 - 12. 7 148. 9 145. 2 - 2. 5 143. 1 142. 2 - 0. 7 1. 9 3. 7 94. 6 4. 6 2. 8 - 39. 3 5. 5 4. 2 - 23. 7 0. 3 0. 5 53. 1 1. 5 1. 6 7. 0 8. 5 7. 3 - 13. 8 13. 7 13. 6 - 1. 2 1. 2. 0 95. 8 4. 4 5. 9 32. 6 10. 1 4. 8 - 52. 2 0. 4 0. 2 - 43. 4 9. 8 4. 3 - 55. 8 10. 0 9. 1 - 8. 9 2. 6 1. 0 - 61. 7 14. 8 9. 1 - 38. 6 1. 8 2. 3 27. 1 23. 6 31. 1 32. 2 57. 1 51. 3 - 10. 2 4. 5 4. 2 - 8. 0 491. 6 498. 1 1. 3 84. 1 76. 6 - 8. 9 13. 8 6. 1 - 55. 7 12. 5 4. 0 - 67. 7 5. 9 9. 1 55. 0 118. 2 7. 1 43. 2 8. 1 8. 8 14. 5 11. 6 289. 3 52. 0 9. 1 236. 2 84. 6 5. 0 45. 4 11. 7 12. 8 13. 6 7. 7 51. 8 33. 4 126. 9 11. 6 59. 7 11. 6 7. 7 15. 8 3. 8 294. 7 60. 2 6. 6 231. 4 81. 9 3. 9 51. 5 22. 2 10. 7 16. 6 3. 1 52. 3 19. 5 7. 3 62. 8 38. 2 43. - 12. 9 9. 1 - 67. 0 1. 8 15. 7 - 27. 9 - 2. 1 - 3. 2 - 21. 4 13. 6 90. 7 - 15. 7 22. 3 - 59. 7 0. 9 - 41. 4 Revised. Preliminary estimates by UNCTAD. c Net cross-border M&As are sales of companies in the host economy to foreign TNCs excluding sales of foreign affiliates in the host economy. Note: World FDI inflows are projected on the basis of 153 economies for which data are available for part of 2011 or full year estimate, as of 19 January 2012. Data are estimated by annualizing their available data, in most cases the first three quarters of 2011.
The proportion of inflows to these economies in total inflows to their respective region or subregion in 2010 is used to extrapolate the 2011 regional data. Annex 2. Cross-border M&A deals with a value of over US$3 billion in 2011 Value (US$ million) 25 056 7 057 6 041 5 629 4 948 4 800 4 750 4 546 3 895 3 832 3 800 3 800 3 549 Acquired company Industry of the acquired company Host economy Ultimate acquiring company Ultimate acquiring nation France Australia Australia Spain Norway United States Australia Germany Switzerland Spain United States United States United States
GDF Suez Energy AXA Asia Pacific Holdings Ltd AXA Asia Pacific Holdings Ltd Bank Zachodni WBK SA Vale SA AIG Star Life Insurance Co Ltd Chesapeake Energy Corp. Porsche Holding GmbH Baldor Electric Co Turkiye Garanti Bankasi AS Universal Studios Holding III Corp OAO "Vimm-Bill'-Dann Produkty Pitaniya" EMI Group PLC
First quarter Natural gas transmission Belgium Life insurance Australia Life insurance Australia Banks Poland Iron ores Brazil Life insurance Japan Crude petroleum and natural United States gas Automobiles and other motor Austria vehicles Motors and generators United States Banks Turkey Television broadcasting United States stations Fluid milk Russian Federation GDF Suez SA AMP Ltd AMP Ltd Banco Santander SA Norsk Hydro ASA Prudential Financial Inc BHP Billiton Ltd Porsche Automobil Holding SE ABB Ltd BBVA GE PepsiCo Inc CitiGroup Inc
Services allied to motion United Kingdom picture production Second quarter Telephone communications, except radiotelephone Biological products, except diagnostic substances Land subdividers and developers, except cemeteries Offices of bank holding companies Copper ores Drilling oil and gas wells Food preparations Electric services Personal credit institutions Radiotelephone communications Italy United States United States United States Australia United States Denmark United Kingdom United States Brazil Brazil Canada Russian Federation Australia United States United States United States Sweden United States Brazil
Weather Investments Srl 22 382 21 230 Genzyme Corp Centro Properties Group 9 400 7 800 7 359 7 306 7 206 6 505 6 300 5 524 4 925 4 356 4 000 3 908 3 842 3 560 3 500 3 400 3 117 3 070 Morgan Stanley Equinox Minerals Ltd Pride International Inc Danisco A/S Central Networks PLC Chrysler Financial Corp Vivo Participacoes SA VimpelCom Ltd Sanofi-Aventis SA Blackstone Group LP Mitsubishi UFJ Finl Grp Inc Barrick Gold Corp Ensco PLC DuPont PPL Corp Toronto-Dominion Bank
Telefonica SA Cosan Ltd Cliffs Natural Resources Inc Total SA Rio Tinto PLC Unilever PLC Grifols SA Investor Group Investor Group Ventas Inc Sinochem Group Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd BHP Billiton Ltd BP PLC Polyus Zoloto IPIC Rolls-Royce Group plc Solvay SA Bank of Montreal Investor Group Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc GE Shareholders Investor Group SABMiller PLC Microsoft Corp Metelem Holding Ltd Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Polymetal International Plc Mitsubishi Corp Chiron Holdings Inc Peabody Energy Corp Volcan Investments Ltd Liberty Global Inc UCL Holding BV Hutchison Whampoa Ltd Grupo Sura China Investment Corp Level 3 Communications Inc Netherlands France United States Japan Canada United Kingdom United States United States Canada Spain Brazil United States France United Kingdom United Kingdom Spain Singapore United States United States China
Shell International Petroleum Co Industrial organic chemicals Ltd Consolidated Thompson Iron Iron ores Mines Ltd Crude petroleum and natural OAO "Novatek" gas Bituminous coal and lignite Riversdale Mining Ltd surface mining Perfumes, cosmetics, and Alberto-Culver Co other toilet preparations Talecris Biotherapeutics Pharmaceutical preparations Holdings Corp Frac Tech Holdings LLC Oil and gas field services Securitas Direct AB Security systems services Atria Senior Living Group Inc. Peregrino Project,Campos Basin Nycomed International Management GmbH Petrohawk Energy Corp Reliance Industries Ltd OAO "Polyus Zoloto" Cia Espanola de Petroleos SA {CEPSA} Tognum AG Rhodia SA Marshall & Ilsley Corp.
Parmalat SpA Phadia AB Converteam Group SAS Distribuidora Internacional de Alimentacion SA{Dia} SPIE SA Foster's Group Ltd Skype Global Sarl Polkomtel SA Cephalon Inc OAO "Polimetall" Anglo American Sur SA Kinetic Concepts Inc Macarthur Coal Ltd Cairn India Ltd Musketeer GmbH OAO "Pervaya Gruzovaya Kompaniya" Northumbrian Water Group PLC ING Groep NV GDF Suez SA Global Crossing Ltd Skilled nursing care facilities Crude petroleum and natural gas Third quarter Pharmaceutical preparations Crude petroleum and natural gas Crude petroleum and natural gas Gold ores Crude petroleum and natural gas Internal combustion engines Manmade organic fibers, except cellulosic National commercial banks Fluid milk Surgical and edical instruments and apparatus Motors and generators Grocery stores 13 683 11 776 9 000 6 256 4 964 4 723 4 640 4 095 3 599 3 540 3 200 3 140 3 033 10 793 8 500 6 611 6 311 5 499 5 390 5 139 4 949 4 542 4 495 4 223 3 837 3 614 3 259 Switzerland United States India Russian Federation Spain Germany France United States Italy Sweden France Spain Japan Australia United Kingdom Russian Federation United Arab Emirates United Kingdom Belgium Canada France United States United States France United States United Kingdom United States Cyprus Israel Jersey Japan United Kingdom United States United Kingdom United States Netherlands Hong Kong, China Colombia China United States
Engineering services France Fourth quarter Malt beverages Australia Prepackaged Software Luxembourg Radiotelephone Poland communications Pharmaceutical preparations Gold ores Copper ores Surgical and medical instruments and apparatus Coal mining services Crude petroleum and natural gas Cable and other pay television services United States Russian Federation Chile United States Australia India Germany Railroads, line-haul operating Russian Federation Water supply Insurance agents, brokers, and service Electric services Telephone communications, except radiotelephone United Kingdom Mexico France Bermuda 3 017 Source: UNCTAD. The next issue of UNCTAD’s Global Investment Trends Monitor will be released in mid-April 2012. The next issue of UNCTAD's Investment Policy Monitor will be released in the first week of February 2012.
